India's Reaction to Kobhragade Arrest - Excessive, Unbecoming of an Aspiring Superpower

If you belong to a party that just lost assembly elections in four out of five States and are increasingly poised to loose the General Elections in 2014 in a humiliating fashion, all you wish for is an episode such as Devyani Kobhragade's arrest. It presents to you an enticing opportunity of appearing tough, shifts the discussion from corruption and governance to that of hurt pride and seek revenge even if such a reaction may not be the ideal thing to do for an aspiring superpower.


Similarly, if you happen to be a leader of the BJP that just won all of the four elections and is expected to win the 2014 General Elections, you are left with no choice but to search for a tougher line than your opponent, howsoever ludicrous, even if it may undermine the foreign policy your previous government and leaders worked tirelessly for.

And of course, if you happen to represent the most despicable face of India's identity based politics, you make it a Dalit issue and hope enough of your followers remain dumb enough to keep voting for you. Mayawati, obviously did not know that Devyani Khobragade achieved a rank of 168 in her civil service examination which does not get you into the IFS unless you happen to enjoy the special privileges of belonging to the SC/ST category.

The above largely sums up why India (The Government, Media, Social Media and the Chattering Class) reacted the way we did on the arrest and strip search of a diplomat by the US. Cheap domestic political interests overpowered the larger foreign policy interests of the Nation.

It goes without saying that the treatment handed out to our diplomat was heavy handed and we needed to express outrage and take it up strongly through the official channels. But by stripping down the security barriers, taking away diplomatic privileges of the American consulate members, imposing a ban on import of food and liquor for the embassy staff, raising calls for arrest of homosexual partners of the embassy staff and our leaders refusing to meet the visiting American delegation, we have ended up far exceeding American Arrogance with our stupidity. The way American police reacted is of course not how you treat the diplomat of any country, at least not that of a country you project as a strategic ally but you also don't act the way we did when you keep staking your claim to be the next superpower and a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

Devyani Kobhragade is a seasoned bureaucrat having been in the IFS since 1999. She is the daughter of a retired IAS officer. She, of all people, must know not to violate the law of the country in which you are posted. When you declare 11 immovable properties on your profile including an apartment in the Adarsh Society and happen to be the 2nd highest ranking official at India's Embassy in the US, the least you should be able to afford is to pay minimum wage to your baby-sitter. You decide not to do it because at some level you believe yourself to be above the law and consider a domestic help helpless. Or perhaps because you could use all your political connections and might in evading prosecution in the Adarsh Society scam, you tend to assume immunity for acts of corruption.

Devyani moreover is not the first Indian diplomat to have exploited their domestic help in the US. We have had two of our high ranking diplomats in US accused of the same in the recent past, one having been ordered to pay as much as US$1.5 million in penalties.

Washington Post (Link) , New York Times (NYT Link) and Financial Times (FT Link) have published their opinion pieces on the events largely holding India at fault. Their editorials are read by global audience which helps shape the perception of our country overseas. The image that emerges of India from this episode is of a country that does not care or respect the laws and is willing to throw its weight behind the dignity of a dishonest diplomat while showing no concern to the plight of the domestic help who may be the real victim here. Salman KHurshied in his interviews on the television dealt another blow to our reputation by saying our diplomats underpay the domestic helps all the time and that is not really bad. His interview paints the image of us as a country where as long as violation of a law happens all the time, it is OK and while law may be same for everyone in letter, its implementation is different for different people.

Germany didn't react the way we did at the news of US spying on Merkel. Even we didn't react the way we have done now when Snowden's leaks showed NSA spied on Indian Embassy. The reaction this time is purely an outcome of political posturing for garnering momentum at the cost of jeopardizing foreign policy. Our leaders do that all the time - we have lost an ally in Sri Lanka due to Tamil Politics at home and we are increasingly loosing allies in our neighborhood for lack of vision and tactical oversight in our foreign policy setup.

Once again, I am not saying what US did was right - they could have asked India to remove Devyani or accorded her more courtesies before putting her through an arrest. A strip search could have clearly been avoided. But our reaction has clearly absolved the US from its misconduct. The US government can express regret for the cause of larger relationship while their legal system keeps its head high for passionately defending the law of the land. We on the other hand emerge as a country that claims to be a superpower in the making but plays the victim card at the slightest of opportunity. Perhaps our government, politicians and media would do well to realize, it pays to be tactical and strategic in foreign relations rather than oscillate between being a lap-dog or a wild cat.

2011, a Year that was. 2012, a Year that would be.

S&P 500 at 1257.6 ended 2011 where it stared. Globally $ 6.3 trillion was lost in capital markets. Investment bankers, hedge funds, traders and the Wall Street elite continue to mint money though while the 401(k) and the middle class keep getting squeezed. May 2012 be the year when disparity between the real and financial economies see some contraction.

Our Sensex ended the year 25% down, lost the trillion dollar membership and Indian Rupee ended up as the worse Asian currency in 2011 loosing 16% against the American Dollar. Economic growth in 2011 may come at under 7% against the projected 7.6%. These facts however had no effect on our Government that continues to enjoy its ever extended holiday. 2011 was a year of lost opportunities, policy paralysis and continued mockery of democracy. We are yet to get a Lokpal (Ombudsperson) or any other strong counter corruption measure despite the protests and scandals continue unabated. 2011 has been a splendid year for the Politicians and an equally painful one for the public. I wish 2012 turns out to be splendid for the public and democracy starts discovering its real meaning by booting out the corrupt governments in upcoming state elections.

Afzal Guru and Kasab are alive and kicking, feasting in a high security cell on our tax payments. In the meanwhile, we had serial blasts in Mumbai in July and a powerful blast in Delhi in September. 2012 would probably be the year when we release these two gentlemen in exchange for the innocents hijacked.

Globally and in our territory, Pakistan remains the epicenter of terrorism; it came as no surprise that Osama was hiding near their military academy. World continues to find a way to look the other way and ignore the threat while our spineless politicians continue to play politics on how to tackle the threat of a yet another Kargil or 26/11. 2011 was however a year of lateral thinking on this subject; let’s withdraw our army from Kashmir and separatists have a feast in 2012. May 2012 be the year when the world agree on a coordinated response to fight terrorism without giving any concessions to anyone for short term geo-political gains and India gives a fitting response to any act of terror.

The European Union continues to debate how to fix itself. Germany though finally found redemption and achieved the objective of ruling Europe, well almost. France found itself in the unusual position of having some influence even if it was as Germany’s wing-man and the Conservative British Government understandably could not tolerate it. May 2012 be the year when they realize EU in its current form is not an economic failure but a social and political failure. EU citizens need to finally start identifying themselves as Europeans to make a real European Union that works for all and not just Germany.

Coming on to the lighter side of life:

The ever inflating Shah Rukh Khan bubble finally burst in 2011, Karan Johar and Aditya Chopra continued to sink further into oblivion and Salman Khan at 46 continues to be the youth icon. New talent-less and gutless bubbles continue to inflate further - Ranveer Singh, Sonakshi Sinha and Imran Khan to name a few. Bollywood overall continued to churn out mediocre movies with no single title worth remembering. May 2012 be a year when we finally see some talent and get a movie that does justice to the available talent of Amitabh Bacchan, Anupam Kher, Shabana Azmi and Nandita Das.

By winning the Cricket world cup in Mumbai, miserably losing the test and one day series in England and then beating the same English team on their return tour, Indian team cemented its reputation as that of tigers at home and just another team abroad. Sachin is still searching for his century of centuries and Dravid continues to wonder why India loves Ganguly and even Laxman more than him. May 2012 be a year when we lose some and win some on all pitches and under all conditions and Sachin gets his 100th 100.

2011 for me was a year of settling down in a new city and a new job. I continue to thank God for giving me the gift of education which has allowed me to travel the world and live a life that is comfortable, secure, honest and interesting. 2011 was also the year when I stopped being a regular traveler on the NYC-Boston boltbus. Shavi graduated and joined me in NYC. I am ever more thankful to her as she continues to inspire me to be a better man every day. 2012 is going to be the biggest possible year in our lives as we welcome our daughter in our lives and the world. May 2012 be a year when we continue to be good, honest and compassionate human beings and excel in our roles as parents.

Happy 2012 everyone.

Failure of the American Foreign Policy and Multilateral Setup

When it comes to foreign policy ideologues, there are as many as there are experts. Widely quoted experts tend to identify themselves as neo-conservatives, nationalists, realists, liberals and rationalists. Ironically, US despite being home to the best of foreign policy schools such as Georgetown, John Hopkins, Harvard and Columbia, foreign policy experts seem to have lost sense of a coherent foreign policy.

Not that this incoherence is a recent phenomenon - American foreign policy started loosing the consensus it enjoyed in the post second world war era starting late 1960s. US emerged as the undisputed superpower in the world after the second world war. It took on a leadership role in the post war reconstruction efforts and was able to gain acceptance as a leader by advocating protection of human rights, promotion of free trade, adoption of democracy and creation of a multilateral set up.

In the late 1960s however these principles which formed the backbone of US foreign policy started to take a backseat and the Nation became obsessed with the ideal of winning the Cold War and defeating communism globally. It eventually won the cold war but ended up creating a distrust in the mind of other nations in the process. US was now seen as a superpower which was not afraid to use its hard and soft power unilaterally for promoting its hegemonic interests.

The incoherence in the US foreign policy accelerated further after it won the cold war. American policy makers saw winning the cold war as a mandate to bully others into accepting a bundled package of democracy and economic liberalization regardless of their readiness. It also instilled a sense of supremacy which led the policy makers to assume they had the right to abide or overrule the very multilateral system US helped create in pursuit of its own interests.

US turned a blind eye to the genocide in Rwanda that cost more than 800,000 lives but pushed for intervention in Kosovo. Classified documents released to the public reveal how the Clinton administration knew of the Rwanda genocide and the plan to eliminate Tutsis and modest Hutus. Some say the non intervention was due to the earlier fiasco in Somalia while some say Rwanda didn't matter as it possessed no noteworthy energy reserves and had no strategic geopolitical value. Some also contend Rwanda was alien land with which Americans shared no identity. On the other hand even though the US intervened in the Balkans with force and cooperation of the NATO, the result was only a qualified and partial success. This brings me to the middle east policy.

Middle east has vast energy reserves and is geopolitically strategic. The fact however is that Foreign policy with regards to the middle east is now a clearly visible failure as well. Israel and Palestine are not even remotely close to resolving the conflicts and most of the middle east is rising up in protest for freedom. Mobarak who was eventually disowned by Obama was once the favorite ally of the US and Israel in the middle east. Mobarak was showered with American arms and greenbacks to remain friendly to Israel and keep Islamic militancy in check. His autocratic means and oppression of Egyptian didn't bother.

It is pertinent however to ask ourselves; in a global world where everyone is competing for the finite amount of resources, should America be expected to promote democracy and human rights or should it be allowed to choose its allies and policies pragmatically on the basis of their strategic value. Why should the American taxpayers be made to pay for keeping Israel safe at the cost of annoying countries with enormous energy reserves and keep spending money and earn hatred of locals while intervening in civil wars? I am afraid, there is no easy answer to this question.

Truth is it is not just the US that wants to intervene out of strategic interests or many a times out of compulsion, but also that the world has come to rely upon the US for solving any and every conflict. That says a great deal about the ineffectiveness and failure of the entire multilateral set up created after the second world war. UN is turning out to be a disaster after all those years of hard work. It has not been able to fulfill even the most basic of its reactionary duties. Expecting it to react pro-actively would be like expecting Microsoft to outsmart Apple and Google.

It is also a telling example of how ineffective the EU has been in rising up as a genuine superpower. Secondly, US by being so hegemonic and vocal about its role in the world has bred the impression among countries and the people that its ready to defend the basic principles of Human Rights, Democracy and Free Trade. My feeling therefore is that if you carefully breed a sense of dependency into the mind of others, you are also supposed to live up to those carefully bred expectations and this is where the US has lost ground.

The financial crisis where many see the American financial system as responsible for pushing the world into recession has further dented American credibility in the global establishment. Given all this, America need to reorient itself and try to be persuasive and respectful and give up bullying. We have seen how one solution doesn't fit all in the failure of democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan imposed by the US. We have also seen how we cant come to rely upon the Americans to bail out each and every problem in the world.

Therefore what we need is an urgent and fundamental reform of the UN and the Security Council. We cannot trust 5 veto wielding nations to protect the sovereignty and security of other 187 member nations, especially when they are competing among themselves to capture more and more energy resources and geopolitical leverage. This reform process need to start with the expansion of Security Council and elimination of veto power. The General Assembly need to come out of its dysfunctional state and exert its influence. It needs to have a strong and equipped reserve military that can be rapidly deployed to control situations such as Libya and prevent events such as the Rwanda genocide from occurring again. Unless the UN emerges out of its hibernation or a strong replacement multilateral organization is set up, we would continue to have whats happening in the Middle East and Africa.

Washington to Fiji and Kashmir to Iraq - all in a week

A week which witnessed a few significant events across the globe - First and probably the most impacting is the publication of Iraq Study Group's Baker-Hamilton report, secondly the military coup in Fiji which happens to be the fourth in two decades, thirdly the enactment of India-US nuclear agreement and last but not the least Musharaf's proposal on resolving the Kashmir issue. Events range from North America to the South Pacific and for obvious reasons have major foreign policy implications for India and the rest of the world.

The much hyped Baker-Hamilton report mentions the obvious - situation in Iraq is grave and deteriorating and have suggested three main actions

1. American troops need to change their focus to support and train the local police - Americans generally are one of the best managers but am not sure if the same can be said about the rude arrogant American militarymen
2. Performance based monitoring of Iraq - helping Iraqis to become self reliant and threatning penalties should they fail - I wonder what sort of penalties they are talking about. It cant be monetary penalties or economic sanctions that are the favorites of the Americans. However, the oil lobby can seek to control the oil rigs through this
3. Engage Iraq's neighbours in stabilizing the country and the region and get even more deeply engage in resolving the middle east conflict - well.. this is tricky.. Can the oversized egoist Americans really collaborate with the Arabs, the EU which has better credentials at mediating in conflicts and the emerging powers China, India and Russia in resolving these issues. If yes, it will be the dawn of a new multi-polar world.

The report envisages withdrawl of American troops by Q1 of 2008 - Given that the American public has finally risen against the Republican's politics of fear and hatred, I have a fair reason to assume that Bush will finally listen to more sensible people than Rumsfeld and Cheney and collaborate with the Iraqis and other relevant nations in figuring out a solution.

A yet another military coup in the South Pacific - fourth in two decades. Reason - the same old reason of ironing out the widening racial divide. Mr. Qarase, the democratically elected PM in this years May elections was house arrested by Cmdre Bainimarama and robbed of his powers. Australia, the dominant South Pacific nation failed to exercise its leadership in averting the coup despite repeated requests by Fijian PM. Whatever may be the outcome of this coup, one thing stands out loud and clear - in a country with racial diversity like that of Fiji, there is got to be a balancing of power between the eecutive and the military. India, with the most diverse population, has strangely never witnessed a military-executive confrontation. I wonder if its because the military leadership is kept happy with lavish defence deals commissions or its the structure of military that prevents the unification of forces under one command.

Passing of the India-US nuclear agreement may be seen as big step towards India's larger involvement in world affairs. India needs to tap each and every possible energy resource and this partnership if implemented will go a long way in establishing India's credentials as a peaceful nuclear power who can be a rold model for states like South Korea, Pakistan and Iran.

Lastly, another twist in the tale of Pakistani President Musharaf - a new four point resolution for the Kashmir problem. The solution on the face of it sounds practicable. However, it remaims to be seen if India too can respond actively to this. However, if this is yet another tactical media overture of Musharaf then India needs to be even more tactical at handling media and the international community to make Musharaf's shrewdy maneuver. So much I wish, Indian politicans were as good as Musharaf in handling international media as they are at handling media for appeasing the minorities.

Cheers mates..
Varun